The icitizen Tennessee Poll provides a nonpartisan, representative read of public opinion on pressing legislative and social issues facing the country. This installment of the Tennessee Poll provides the latest state numbers on the road to the November general election and explores candidate images and electoral strengths. The survey also explores a broader set of topical social, religious, public policy issues and news events in Tennessee.
- U.S. Presidential Race: Among Registered Voters – Trump +10: Hillary Clinton (34%), Donald Trump (44%), Gary Johnson (7%), Jill Stein (2%), someone else (5%), undecided (8%).
- Trump carries a 17-point advantage among Independents.
- Clinton takes 89% of Democrats to Trump’s 79% of Republicans.
- Democrats in Tennessee are also slightly more energized to vote than Republicans. Ninety percent of Democrats “definitely will vote,” compared to 85% of Republicans.
- A challenge for both candidates is overcoming their poor public images: Clinton stands at 34% favorable, 63% unfavorable; Trump stands at 38% favorable, 58% unfavorable. However, Trump’s running mate Mike Pence charges ahead in favorability. He stands at 49% favorable, 28% unfavorable, while Clinton’s running mate Tim Kaine stands at 28% favorable, 42% unfavorable.
- Only 15% of voters think Trump “respects women.”
- A majority of Tennesseans believe that the release of a 2005 tape of Donald Trump making derogatory comments about women will have “some” to “a great deal” of an effect on his campaign.
- A plurality of voters (44%) believe his comments were “completely unacceptable in any situation,” and 39% believe that the comments were “inappropriate, but typical of locker room talk among men.”
- Over 8 in 10 (81%) Tennesseans believe that corruption is a major issue in national politics; 52% of Tennesseans think corruption is a major issue in state politics.
The survey was conducted online from October 14-17, 2016 among 508 registered Tennessee voters. In order to achieve an accurate demographic representation of the public, the data were weighted to U.S. Census and voter file benchmarks for gender, age, region, education, income, marital status and race. Party identification was not weighted. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points, and is higher for subgroups.
Presidential Ballot in Detail
In the general election presidential ballot, the full ballot stands: Hillary Clinton (34%), Donald Trump (44%), Gary Johnson (7%), Jill Stein (2%), someone else (5%), undecided (8%).
Party ID for the registered voter sample is R+6 (Dem 29%, Rep 35%, 36% Ind/other).
“Trump leads despite underperforming among his party base,” said icitizen Polling Analyst Cynthia Villacis. “He captures support from only 79% of Republicans and 68% of conservatives. Trump’s standing, however, is buttressed by a 17-point lead among Independents, 18-point lead among men and a 20-point lead among seniors. Whether Trump carries Tennessee in November may rest on the Independent vote at the ballot box.”
Issues and Traits
- Trump commands double-digit leads over Clinton on “the economy and jobs” (17 points), “gun policy” (23 points), and immigration (16 points).
- The candidates are effectively tied on “education” and “civil rights” and “foreign policy,” where Clinton leads just slightly (38% to 37%). Clinton’s stronghold is on “gender equality,” where she holds a 17 point lead.
- Clinton leads Trump by the widest margin on being “qualified for president.” Twenty-five percent of voters believe Trump is “qualified,” and 37% believe Clinton is “qualified.” Fully 90% of Democrats find Clinton “qualified for president,” and only 49% of Republicans describe Trump as “qualified for president.”
- Fully 76% of Clinton supporters believe she is “principled,” while only 54% of Trump supporters believe he is “principled.”
- More than half (52%) of Tennessee voters said “neither” candidate is honest and trustworthy.
- Tennesseans were asked questions about a 2005 tape that featured Donald Trump making derogatory comments about women. Sixty-two percent of voters believe that the release of this 2005 tape of Donald Trump will have “some” to “a great deal” of an influence on his campaign (32% not much influence/none, 5% unsure).
- A plurality of voters (44%) believe his comments were “completely unacceptable in any situation.” Thirty-nine percent believe that the comments were “inappropriate, but typical of locker room talk among men,” including 43% of religious Tennesseans.
- Two-thirds of Tennesseans (66%) disagree with the statement that they are “happy with how the media are handling the debates” (27% agree, 7% unsure).
- Over half of Tennesseans (51%) agree with the statement that they are “uncomfortable with children watching the presidential debates” (42% disagree, 8% unsure).
Toplines, Crosstabs and Public Report
For more information, please contact Cynthia Villacis, icitizen polling analyst.