The icitizen Oregon Poll provides a non-partisan, representative sample of public opinion on pressing legislative and policy issues in Oregon. This installment of the Oregon Poll examines November general election matchups, key ballot measures, as well as attitudes towards the state, the economy and personal finances.
- Oregon’s Ballot Measure 97 (Measure 97), enjoys majority support (59%). However, support dips 19 points after respondents receive messages of support and opposition to the measure.
- U.S. Presidential race: Clinton up by 15 points. The ballot stands at Hillary Clinton (43%), Donald Trump (28%), Gary Johnson (11%), Jill Stein (3%), someone else (7%), undecided (8%).
- Oregon Governor race: Incumbent Governor Brown takes a 17 point lead over Bud Pierce. The full ballot stands at Kate Brown (44%), Bud Pierce (27%), Cliff Thomason (3%), James Foster (3%), undecided (23%).
- Oregon Treasurer race: Tobias Read takes a 7 point lead over Jeff Gudman. The ballot stands at Tobias Read (25%), Jeff Gudman (18%), Chris Telfer (9%), undecided (48%).
- Oregon Secretary of State: Democrat Brad Avakian (29%) has a 3-point lead over Republican Dennis Richardson (26%).
The survey was conducted online from September 2-7, 2016 among 610 registered voters in Oregon. All respondents are verified, registered voters drawn from L2 voter file data. Voter file benchmarks for gender, age, region, race, education and income were used to inform post-stratification demographic weighting and to ensure representativeness to the registered voter universe in Oregon. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4 percentage points, and is higher for subgroups.
Presidential Ballot in Detail
In the general election presidential ballot, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton holds a 15-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump in Oregon (43% to 28% – multi-candidate ballot).
“Clinton’s dominance in Oregon is due to the stronghold she has among women and Portland Metro residents,” said icitizen polling analyst Cynthia Villacis, “Clinton holds a 22-point lead among women, 38-point lead among Portland Metro residents and seven-point lead among Independents.” Clinton also consolidates her party better than Trump (76% of Democrats support her compared to 68% of Republicans who support Donald Trump).
“Clinton’s dominance, however, is most surprising despite low public image ratings in the state,” said Villacis. “Both candidates have net-negative public images. Clinton is viewed favorably by only 40% of voters, and unfavorably by 56%. For Trump, it is just 25% favorable and 72% unfavorable.”
Oregon Statewide Races in Detail
- Governor Kate Brown (D) leads Bud Pierce (R) by 17 points. Brown’s lead is three points ahead of party identification (D+14). Governor Brown converts 77% of Democrats to Pierce’s 75% of Republicans and leads Independents by 9 points. The full ballot stands at Kate Brown (44%), Bud Pierce (27%), Cliff Thomason (3%), James Foster (3%), undecided (23%).
- Democrat Brad Avakian has a slim 3-point lead over Republican Dennis Richardson in the race for Secretary of State. The ballot stands at Brad Avakian (29%), Dennis Richardson (26%), Sharon Durbin (2%), Paul Damian Wells (4%), Alan Zundel (2%), Michael Marsh (1%), undecided (36%).
- In the race for State Treasurer, Democrat Tobias Read leads a three-way race over Republican Jeff Gudman and Independent Chris Telfer (25% to 18% to 9%), but with 48% undecided the race is still subject to a lot of movement.
Oregon Ballot Measure 97 in Detail
Measure 97, which would increase the gross receipts tax on high-sales businesses in the state, is supported by nearly six-in-ten Oregonian registered voters (59% favor, 21% oppose, 20% unsure). When provided with messaging in support of and against the measure, favorability dips 19 points to 40% – underscoring the potential for a fluid race in November.
“When told that upon passage of Measure 97 Oregon voters would have to pay $600 per year in taxes passed on from businesses, 65% are less likely to support this initiative. This suggests messaging about the effect on an Oregonian’s pocket book can make for a tighter race in November, depending on either camp’s ability to market the measure in their favor,” said Villacis.
In addition, a plurality of respondents (23%) opt for improving public education when asked which should be the top priority for receiving proposed tax revenues from Measure 97, highlighting a demand for greater education funding.
Other Oregon Ballot Measures in detail
- Ballot Measure 94 which would remove the mandatory retirement of judges (currently set at 75 years), is opposed by over half of voters (53%), compared to 33% who support and 14% who are unsure. Ironically, opposition to the measure increases with age, with seniors (65+) most opposed (65% oppose).
- Results are tight around Ballot Measure 95, which would allow public state universities to invest in equities. A plurality (47%) are still unsure, 29% are in favor and 24% are opposed. This suggests more information around this policy topic is needed before voters hit the ballot box in November.
- Fully 83% favor Ballot Measure 96, which would devote 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to fund services for Oregon veterans (8% oppose, 9% unsure).
- A majority (64%) favor Ballot Measure 98, which would fund dropout prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools (19% oppose, 17% unsure).
- Ballot Measure 99 would designate approximately $22 million in state lottery funds for outdoor education for all fifth and sixth graders in Oregon. A majority (69%) are in favor of this measure (19% oppose, 12% unsure).
Toplines, Crosstabs and Public Report
For more information, please contact Cynthia Villacis, icitizen’s Polling Analyst.