Huffington Post Readers: Click here for National Poll Results for July 19, 2016.
The icitizen Oregon Poll provides a non-partisan, representative read of public opinion on pressing legislative and social issues in Oregon. This installment of the Oregon Poll examines November general election matchups, key ballot measures, as well as attitudes towards the state, the economy, and personal finances.
- Oregon State Initiative Petition 28 (IP28) enjoys majority support but opinions are fluid
- Half of the respondents prefer to retain the mandatory retirement age for judges (and seniors prefer it more than others)
- Hillary Clinton commands a double-digit, 14-point lead over Donald Trump
- Governor Brown takes a 7-point lead into the summer against Bud Pierce
The survey was conducted online from June 23-27 among 603 adults statewide, including 555 registered voters. In order to achieve an accurate demographic representation of the public, the data were sampled and weighted to U.S. Census benchmarks for gender, age, region, education, income, and race. In addition, the registered voter sub-sample was weighted by party registration to the May, 2016 Oregon Secretary of State voter registration statistics.
Key findings for 2016 November General Election Races:
Democratic candidates currently lead four of the marquee races, but some leads are slim and there are sizeable percentages of swing voters at this stage in the race. Among registered voters:
- Hillary Clinton owns the most commanding advantage over Donald Trump, 14-points, due in large part to her consolidation of the Democratic base (89% of Democrats currently support her compared to 70% of Republicans for Donald Trump). Independents are split. Clinton outpaces party identification in the state by three points. The ballot stands at 46% Clinton, 32% Trump, and 22% undecided.
- Governor Kate Brown (D) leads Bud Pierce (R) by seven points, which is four points behind party ID (D+11). Governor Brown converts 84% of Democrats (to Pierce’s 76% of Republicans), but trails independents by 10 points – which contributes to the single-digit lead overall. The ballot stands at 42% Brown, 35% Pierce, and 23% undecided.
- Democrat Brad Avakian has a slim 4-point lead over Republican Dennis Richardson in the race for Secretary of State (36% to 32%, with 32% undecided).
- In the race for State Treasurer, Democrat Tobias Read leads a three-way race over Republican Jeff Gudman and Independent Chris Telfer (26% to 19% to 14%), but with 41% undecided the race is very fluid.
Key findings for 2016 ballot measures:
- Initiative Petition 28 (IP28) which would increase the gross receipts tax on high-sales businesses in the state, is supported by two-thirds of Oregonian registered voters (65% favor, 19% oppose, 16% unsure). When provided with messaging in support and against the measure, support dips to 55% – underscoring the potential for shifting perspectives on this issue.
- The Judicial Retirement measure which would remove the mandatory retirement of judges (currently set at 75 years), is opposed by half of voters, compared to 36% who support and 15% who are unsure. Ironically, opposition to the measure increases with age, with seniors (65+) most opposed (63% oppose).
- Initiative Petition 49 (IP49) which has not qualified for the ballot as of this writing, would amend the Oregon Constitution to require a two-thirds supermajority vote in the legislature to declare an emergency that accelerates a law’s effective date, and thereby removes the option of a referendum on that law. A plurality (39%) are unsure compared to 35% who support and 26% who oppose.
Toplines, Crosstabs and Public Report
For more information, please contact Mark Keida, icitizen’s VP of Polling & Research.