The icitizen National Poll provides a non-partisan, representative read of public opinion on pressing legislative and social issues facing the country. This installment of the National Poll provides the “last” pre-convention numbers for the November general election presidential matchup and explores candidate images and electoral strengths. The survey also explores a broader set of topical public policy issues and news events.
*All National Poll findings reported among the Registered Voter subsample.
- The presidential race is a real contest. On the one hand, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by single digits in both ballot tests: by five (5) points in a head-to-head matchup, and by four (4) points in a five-way matchup. On the other hand, on the two-way ballot, Trump carries independents by 10 points, and undecideds lean toward him (and look more like his voters), suggesting latent potential.
- Moreover, neither candidate has consolidated their respective base – underscoring room for growth in both camps. Clinton takes 82% of Democrats to Trump’s 80% of Republicans, although Democrats are slightly more energized to vote (87% to 81%) at this time.
- A challenge for both is their “under water” public images. Clinton stands at 39% favorable, 58% unfavorable. Trump stands at 36% favorable, 61% unfavorable. At base, voters do not see either candidate as particularly honest or trustworthy, and they see both as willing to say or do anything to get elected.
- On the issues, Trump leads Clinton by six points on the “the economy and jobs”. The candidates are basically tied on “immigration” and “international trade”. Clinton posts solid leads on remaining issues, including on “foreign policy”.
- Sixty percent (60%) think Clinton has not been honest about her use of email as Secretary of State. A majority (51%) thinks Clinton should be prosecuted, including 23% of Democrats and 12% of her supporters.
In other areas…
- Global and domestic events have vaulted “terrorism” to the #1 issue for voters (25%), ahead of jobs and the economy (20%) – the mainstay top issue for the better part of the last decade.
- Voters are split on President Obama’s legacy: 42% success, 44% failure, 14% unsure.
- 82% say racism is a real problem in America. Nearly a quarter of Republicans disagree (22%).
- A majority (57%) favors the U.S. sending ground troops into combat against ISIS, and 54% would favor a temporary ban on Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States.
- A commanding majority (87%) supports a federal law that would block firearm purchases for individuals on the “terrorist no-fly” list.
This national poll was conducted online from July 12-15 among 1,000 registered voters nationwide (from a total sample of 1,147 adults). In order to achieve an accurate demographic representation of the public, the data were weighted to U.S. Census benchmarks for gender, age, region, education, income, marital status, and race. Party identification was not weighted. As a non-probability sample, no estimates of sampling error are provided; however, all surveys may be subject to error, including for sampling, coverage, and measurement.
Presidential Ballot – 2 way
- Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by five (5) points in a two-way test, 46% to 41%, with 13% undecided. Clinton takes 82% of Democrats; Trump takes 80% of Republicans. Trump leads independents by 10 points. (Party ID for the registered voter sample is D+10 [Dem 41%, Rep 31%, Ind/other 28%]. icitizen did not apply weighting to party identification.)
- The candidates each have similar levels of strong support: 25% for Clinton, 22% for Trump.
- Undecideds currently break more for Trump than for Clinton (20% lean Trump, 13% lean Clinton, 68% are pure undecided). Party ID for pure undecideds appears to favor Trump (R+2 with 51% independent/other).
- The candidates are tied among men. Clinton leads women by eight (8) points.
- About four-in-ten voters are casting “opposition” votes. Thirty-eight percent of Clinton supporters say their support is to show opposition to Trump. Forty-one percent of Trump supporters say the same of Clinton.
- Only eight percent of Trump supporters would consider voting for Clinton. Nine percent of Clinton supporters would consider voting for Trump. A slightly larger proportion of supporters of each would “definitely consider” voting for a third party candidate (14% of Clinton supporters, 12% of Trump supporters).
Presidential Ballot – 5 way
- Including third-party candidates, Clinton’s lead stands at four (4) points, 39% to 35%, with 6% undecided, 9% for Gary Johnson, 3% for Jill Stein, and 8% for “someone else”. Trump leads independents by nine (9) points.
- Johnson pulls more from Trump (10% of Trump supporters on the 2-way ballot) than from Clinton (4%). Stein pulls more from Clinton (3%) than from Trump (1%). “Someone else” pulls more from Clinton (3%) than from Trump (1%).
- Both candidates’ images are well “under water”. Clinton stands at 39% favorable, 58% unfavorable. Among Democrats, 71% have a favorable view and 27% have an unfavorable view. Seventy percent (70%) of independents have an unfavorable view of Clinton.
- Trump stands at 36% favorable, 61% unfavorable. Among Republicans, Trump is at 66% favorable, 32% unfavorable. Sixty percent (60%) of independents have an unfavorable view of Trump.
- Two-thirds (66%) of Democrats think their party selected the “right candidate”, compared to 60% of the same for Republicans.
- Six-in-ten voters say Hillary Clinton has not been honest about her emails as Secretary of State, and a slim majority (51%) thinks she should be prosecuted – including about a quarter of Democrats (23%) and even 12% of her supporters.
Issues and Traits
- Trump leads Clinton on “the economy and jobs” (6 points) and “gun policy” (4). The candidates are effectively tied on “international trade” and “immigration”. Clinton leads Trump by double digits on “foreign policy” (12), “civil rights” (19), and other domestic issues.
- Clinton leads Trump by the widest margin on being “qualified for president” (20), and takes single-digit leads on remaining positive traits, such as “principled” (8) and “respected leader” (9). Half (51%) say “neither” candidate is honest or trustworthy, and sizeable percentages say “neither” on positive traits as well.
- Seventy-two percent say the country is off on the wrong track. Twenty-eight percent say “right direction”.
- “Terrorism” tops the list of issues facing voters, at 25%. Jobs and the economy is a close second at 20%, followed by racism and health care at 9%.
- Seven-in-ten rate the national economy as “fair/poor”, with nearly a quarter (23%) rating it “poor”. Only 43% rate their own personal financial situation as “excellent/good”.
- Half (50%) think that delegates to their national party’s convention do not represent their views.
- Nearly eight-in-ten (78%) say that elected officials are “not very accountable for their actions”.
- Only 45% of voters say that “identifying with a political party is important to me”.
- Half (51%) think Hillary Clinton should be prosecuted for her email use while Secretary of State (36% say she should not, and 13% are unsure). Eighty-two percent of Republicans think she should be prosecuted, compared to 23% of Democrats. Only 21% of voters think Clinton has been honest about the issue.
- A plurality (47%) wants to move forward with Merrick Garland’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Four-in-ten think we should hold off until after the election. There is a wide party split on this question.
- A majority (57%) favors the U.S. sending ground troops into combat against ISIS (34% oppose, 9% unsure), and 54% would favor a temporary ban on Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States (37% oppose, 9% unsure).
- A wide majority (87%) supports a federal law that would block firearm purchases for individuals on the “terrorist no fly” list (8% oppose, 5% unsure).
- Voters are split on whether U.S. college and university campuses would be safer or more dangerous places if students and faculty members who have a permit were allowed to carry a concealed weapon on campus (46% safer, 44% more dangerous, 10% unsure).
Data releases are below:
For more information, please contact Mark Keida, icitizen’s Head of Polling.