Oregon: Clinton polls with 15-point lead; Gov. Brown ahead by 17
Support for Ballot Measure 97 shifts 19 points after respondents see added messaging
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (September 13, 2016) -- Leading polling company icitizen just released their September Oregon poll results, which show commanding support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
Among Oregon registered voters, she holds a 15-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump in a multi-candidate ballot, enjoying 43% of support to Trump’s 28%. “Clinton’s dominance in the state can be attributed to the stronghold she has among women and Portland Metro residents,” said icitizen polling analyst Cynthia Villacis. “Clinton holds a 22-point lead among women, 38-point lead among Portland Metro residents and seven-point lead among Independents.” Clinton also consolidates her party better than Trump (76% of Democrats support her compared to 68% of Republicans who support Donald Trump).
Her dominance, however, is most surprising because of how low her public image ratings are in the state. Both candidates have net-negative public images. Clinton is viewed favorably by only 40% of voters, and unfavorably by almost six in ten (56%). For Trump, just 25% of voters view him favorably and more than seven in ten (72%) unfavorably.
In the race for the governor’s seat, incumbent Kate Brown (D) leads Bud Pierce (R) by a wide margin of 17 points. Brown’s lead is three points ahead of party identification (D+14). The full ballot stands at Kate Brown (44%), Bud Pierce (27%), Cliff Thomason (3%), James Foster (3%), undecided (23%).
The poll also dove into public sentiment on state ballot measures up for a vote in November. Measure 97, which would increase the gross receipts tax on high-sales businesses in the state, is supported by nearly six in ten Oregonian registered voters (59% favor, 21% oppose, 20% unsure). Yet, when provided with messaging in support of and against the measure, favorability dips 19 points to 40% – underscoring the potential for a fluid race in November.
“When told that if Measure 97 passes, Oregon voters would have to pay $600 per year in taxes passed on from businesses, 65% say they are less likely to support this initiative. This suggests messaging about the effect on an Oregonian's pocket book can make for a tighter race in November, depending on either camp’s ability to market the measure in their favor,” said Villacis.
Over half of voters (53%) oppose Ballot Measure 94, which would remove the mandatory retirement of judges (currently set at 75 years). About a third (33%) support and 14% are unsure. Ironically, opposition to the measure increases with age, as 65% of seniors (65+) are against it.
Fully eight in ten (83%) favor Ballot Measure 96, which would devote 1.5% of state lottery net proceeds to fund services for Oregon veterans (8% oppose, 9% unsure). Additionally, almost two-thirds (64%) favor Ballot Measure 98, which would fund dropout prevention, career and college readiness programs in Oregon high schools (19% oppose, 17% unsure).
Methodology: The survey was conducted online from September 2-7, 2016 among 610 registered voters statewide. All respondents are verified, registered voters drawn from L2 voter file data. Voter file benchmarks for gender, age, region, race, education and income were used to inform post-stratification demographic weighting and to ensure representativeness to the registered voter universe in Oregon. The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 4 percentage points, and is higher for subgroups.
For more information, contact icitizen’s Polling Analyst Cynthia Villacis at firstname.lastname@example.org.
icitizen is a non-partisan, trusted resource that connects citizens to the information, organizations and elected representatives most relevant to them. Through icitizen, citizens easily promote and stay informed on important issues and vote in polls to create meaningful change. Anonymous poll results and public opinion data are shared with representatives, organizations, companies and other stakeholders to inform policy. Using representative sampling based on U.S. Census targets, icitizen’s polling services help policymakers drive sound, data-driven decisions.
icitizen is based in Nashville, Tenn., and was featured in the Apple store on their list of featured apps “On the Campaign Trail.” For additional information, visit icitizen.com.